Treasury & Rates

Yield curve, key rates, credit conditions & real rates — US fixed income via FRED

Fed Policy & 10Y Benchmark

The two pivotal rates: Fed Funds target range set by the FOMC, and the 10-year Treasury — the global risk-free benchmark.

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Yield Curve Snapshot

Current term structure of US Treasury yields vs 1Y and 2Y ago. Red dots indicate where the curve inverts.

2Y Yield

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5Y Yield

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10Y Yield

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30Y Yield

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10Y-2Y Spread

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10Y-3M Spread

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Yield Curve Snapshot

Cross-sectional view — x = maturity, y = yield. Red dots = inverted region (yield drops vs prior maturity).

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Source: FRED (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS6MO, DGS1, DGS2, DGS3, DGS5, DGS7, DGS10, DGS20, DGS30)

Yield Curve History

10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads over time — inversion (below 0) historically precedes recession by 12-18 months.

Yield Curve History

10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M Treasury spreads — red shading = inversion zone (below 0), grey bars = NBER recessions

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Source: FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M, USREC)

Key Rates

Federal Funds upper bound, treasury yields, and SOFR overnight rate — all in annualised % terms.

Fed Funds

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Upper bound

2Y Treasury

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10Y Treasury

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Benchmark rate

20Y Treasury

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30Y Treasury

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Long bond

SOFR

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Overnight rate

Key Rates — Historical

Fed Funds (upper bound), 2Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y Treasury yields, and SOFR

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Source: FRED: DFEDTARU, DGS2, DGS10, DGS20, DGS30, SOFR

Credit Conditions

High Yield and Investment Grade option-adjusted spreads over Treasuries. Wider spreads = more credit stress.

HY OAS

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IG OAS

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Credit Spreads

Option-adjusted spreads over Treasuries — wider = more stress, tighter = risk-on

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Source: FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM)

MOVE Index

Bond market implied volatility — the rate equivalent of VIX.

ICE BofAML MOVE Index (^MOVE)

Bond market implied volatility — 1-month options on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y & 30Y Treasuries. High = rate uncertainty, Low = complacency.

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Source: Yahoo Finance (^MOVE) · Delayed quote

Real Rates & Inflation Expectations

10Y TIPS real yield and 10Y breakeven inflation rate (market's inflation expectation). Nominal yield ≈ Real yield + Breakeven.

10Y Real Yield

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10Y TIPS real yield

10Y Breakeven

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Inflation expectations

10Y Real Yield vs 10Y Breakeven Inflation

TIPS-implied real yield (left) and market breakeven inflation expectation (right)

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Source: FRED: DFII10, T10YIE